Phillip does not distinguish between change in leadership and regime change. If the Iran revolt succeeded it would lead to regime change and a new Iranian republic would emerge. Not so in China or, obviously, in the UK. The Chinese 'system' (whatever it is - it is certainly not socialist) will remain in tact. Russia's situation in this regard is unclear. My sense is that in the current state of Russia, if Putin were overthrown it would be by an even more hard line group who might not hesitate to use nuclear weapons. Hence, no regime change.
Second, dictators fall when they lose the ability to apply superior armed force and not before. Putin is no where near this and neither is the Iranian regime - although both are admittedly having a good deal of trouble they have not lost control over the people who hold the guns. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guard are the main beneficiaries of the regime and have everything to lose if the regime is overthrown.
Of all the leaders Xi is the most interesting. China's 180 degree u-turn on zero Covid is incredibly pragmatic. Was this Xi's choice? Or was it forced on him by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party? Will this be a prelude to Xi being replaced having effectively lost power? Or is he taking 'two steps back' accepting a temporary loss of power and prestige only to be fully restored a few years from now?
I'm not certain Putin's goose is cooked. USD flow to Ukraine will surely tighten with the House now flipped to GOP. Putin aligns well with growing nationalistic sentiments in the USA, Brazil...and, yes, even here in Canada.
Hopefully, fiat's imminent demise is on your list to address under the theme Endgame :-)
Looking forward to future pieces. Good luck with this initiative.
Interesting analysis with which I agree except possibly for Zelensky. His refusal to negotiate until Russia withdraws from everywhere gives Putin no off-ramp so that Zelensky faces the always dangerous cornered rat.
Well written piece. Here are a few comments.
Phillip does not distinguish between change in leadership and regime change. If the Iran revolt succeeded it would lead to regime change and a new Iranian republic would emerge. Not so in China or, obviously, in the UK. The Chinese 'system' (whatever it is - it is certainly not socialist) will remain in tact. Russia's situation in this regard is unclear. My sense is that in the current state of Russia, if Putin were overthrown it would be by an even more hard line group who might not hesitate to use nuclear weapons. Hence, no regime change.
Second, dictators fall when they lose the ability to apply superior armed force and not before. Putin is no where near this and neither is the Iranian regime - although both are admittedly having a good deal of trouble they have not lost control over the people who hold the guns. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guard are the main beneficiaries of the regime and have everything to lose if the regime is overthrown.
Of all the leaders Xi is the most interesting. China's 180 degree u-turn on zero Covid is incredibly pragmatic. Was this Xi's choice? Or was it forced on him by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party? Will this be a prelude to Xi being replaced having effectively lost power? Or is he taking 'two steps back' accepting a temporary loss of power and prestige only to be fully restored a few years from now?
I'm not certain Putin's goose is cooked. USD flow to Ukraine will surely tighten with the House now flipped to GOP. Putin aligns well with growing nationalistic sentiments in the USA, Brazil...and, yes, even here in Canada.
Hopefully, fiat's imminent demise is on your list to address under the theme Endgame :-)
Looking forward to future pieces. Good luck with this initiative.
Interesting analysis with which I agree except possibly for Zelensky. His refusal to negotiate until Russia withdraws from everywhere gives Putin no off-ramp so that Zelensky faces the always dangerous cornered rat.