December 5, 2022
This newsletter, published every now and then, looks at a wide variety of issues and events through the prism of the endgame. The endgame is a chess concept. In the endgame only a handful of pieces are left on the board. Few moves remain. Victory or defeat is close. Player options are limited and diminishing. The importance of the pieces still on the board has changed (e.g., the pawn has a new significance and the king may have to be used aggressively). Zugzwang is a particularly important aspect of the endgame. Zugzwang exists when a player’s only available move is one which will worsen his position.
Who will survive?
Look around the world. Look at some prominent world leaders—Vladimir Putin, Ali Khamenei, Xi Jinping, Rishi Sunak. Joe Biden, and Volodymyr Zelensky. You know who these people are. They’re famous. But here’s a question. Which of them is playing the endgame? Who only has a few pieces left on the board and just a handful of moves available? And who is in the bitter endgame world of Zugzwang, when a player ‘s only available move is one which will worsen his position?
Putin is in the ugly Zugzwang universe. He has no good choices, militarily or politically. Almost every commentator and analyst agrees that he only has choices that will make him worse off domestically and internationally. He cannot win the Ukraine war and cannot afford to lose it. His reputation is destroyed. His rule is in ruins. He will leave a disastrous legacy. As The Economist newspaper says, Putin is turning Russia into a failed state “with uncontrolled borders, private military formations, a fleeing population, moral decay and the possibility of civil conflict. …It could become ungovernable and descend into chaos.” I am confident that Putin will no longer be president of the Russia Federation by the end of 2023. For him, the endgame is almost over.
Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, is similarly situated. Protests in Iran, triggered by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in custody for “improper veiling,” have grown hugely in breadth and intensity. They are no longer about the Islamic dress code. They reveal a deeply-rooted antipathy to the Khamenei regime and a raging desire for human rights, democracy, and prosperity. There are persistent calls for a general strike. The desperate responses of the Khamenei regime are to ramp up repression, continue to pursue nuclear weapons, continue to promote foreign terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, and cosy up to fellow-pariah Putin (Iranian drones, anyone?). It has been reported that, as a limited concession to the protestors, the morality police have apparently been restrained or even abolished by an increasingly frightened regime. But the forces that have been unleashed in Iran are out of control and Khamenei will soon be gone.
Xi Jinping’s position looks to be much the same. Suddenly he is in trouble. China’s rigid zero-covid policy has failed despite initial success. Covid cases have recently been increasing dramatically and the economic and political costs of the zero-covid policy have been huge. Many Chinese can no longer tolerate lockdowns and other drastic restrictions on their freedoms. Anti-government demonstrations of a scale and intensity that have not been seen since the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 have taken place. The scope of dissent is wide. Economic weakness, even distress in some sectors, adds fuel to discontent. The Economist reports, “The number of domestic flights in China is down by 45% year on year, road freight is 33% lower and traffic on city metros has fallen by 32%.” Paul Krugman writes in The New York Times, “At a fundamental level there’s a clear resemblance between Xi’s refusal to back off zero Covid and Vladimir Putin’s disaster in Ukraine.” To stop the Zero-covid policy now would lead to an enormous number of deaths and a loss of face by the regime. There is no good choice. Xi is backed into a corner. This is the “zero-covid trap.” Xi’s response? Double-down. Continue to insist on the failed zero-covid policy (recent timid relaxation of the policy seems disingenuous and half-hearted and signals regime weakness). Become even more autocratic. Increase surveillance and censorship. These moves will only make things worse. Will Xi Jinping join Vladimir Putin and Ali Khamenei in the ex-autocrats club? I think so.
Rishi Sunak, accidental prime minister of the United Kingdom, has no way out of the mess he is in. He has inherited a disastrous economic and political situation from his several predecessors (there have been five UK prime ministers in the last six years). The GDP of the United Kingdom has contracted by 0.4% between the fourth quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2022, compared to a cumulative 3.7% growth in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Sunak’s Conservative Party is at a historic low in the polls. His government has been forced to raise taxes and cut spending, to general discontent. A massive wave of strikes is imminent. The majority in the UK no longer supports Brexit. The country is broken. There is nothing Sunak can do to fix it. His party is divided into many warring factions. All Sunak can do is bluster (watch Prime Minister’s Questions, every Wednesday on YouTube). Simon Tisdall writes in The Guardian, “The sight of a government in denial, clinging to illusions of enduring greatness, embarrasses friends and amuses enemies.” The next election must be held by January 2025. Sunak will almost certainly lose. At least, since the UK is a democracy, the manner of Sunak’s going can be predicted.
Of the leaders on my list, only two have good options—Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky. They are not playing the endgame. Their options are robust. The biggest choice facing Biden is whether to run in 2024. Neither possibility—running or not—is a foregone conclusion. Each has advantages for him. Neither would be a mistake. I expect him to run.
Ironically, the leader in the best position of all is Zelensky. As Putin’s options disappear, Zelensky’s multiply. He has an array of choices that will enhance and expand his future and stature and that of his country. Much better to be Zelensky than Putin, or any other world leader. As for the dictators, they are doomed.
Well written piece. Here are a few comments.
Phillip does not distinguish between change in leadership and regime change. If the Iran revolt succeeded it would lead to regime change and a new Iranian republic would emerge. Not so in China or, obviously, in the UK. The Chinese 'system' (whatever it is - it is certainly not socialist) will remain in tact. Russia's situation in this regard is unclear. My sense is that in the current state of Russia, if Putin were overthrown it would be by an even more hard line group who might not hesitate to use nuclear weapons. Hence, no regime change.
Second, dictators fall when they lose the ability to apply superior armed force and not before. Putin is no where near this and neither is the Iranian regime - although both are admittedly having a good deal of trouble they have not lost control over the people who hold the guns. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guard are the main beneficiaries of the regime and have everything to lose if the regime is overthrown.
Of all the leaders Xi is the most interesting. China's 180 degree u-turn on zero Covid is incredibly pragmatic. Was this Xi's choice? Or was it forced on him by the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party? Will this be a prelude to Xi being replaced having effectively lost power? Or is he taking 'two steps back' accepting a temporary loss of power and prestige only to be fully restored a few years from now?
I'm not certain Putin's goose is cooked. USD flow to Ukraine will surely tighten with the House now flipped to GOP. Putin aligns well with growing nationalistic sentiments in the USA, Brazil...and, yes, even here in Canada.
Hopefully, fiat's imminent demise is on your list to address under the theme Endgame :-)
Looking forward to future pieces. Good luck with this initiative.